Futures Wheel - Useful Method for Scenario Planning🛞 — Ironstone: Useful Tools⚙️
I have been exploring different tools to assess and analyze different market trends and changes. One of the tools that I was introduced to was the Futures Wheel which I applied in a team workshop to analyze the larger impacts of remote work and the changes to working from home that happened during the pandemics are are still echoing through society an economy. Once you look a the broad impacts, you realize its time to shape business around a change that is likely to stay.
Learning about how to apply a Futures Wheel is straight forward. I prepped a simple FAQ for people to adapt the tool to their purposes.
Here’s a Claude.ai Generated FAQ for the Futures Wheels method to help understand its application and benefits in scenario planning:
1. **What is a Futures Wheel?**
— A Futures Wheel is a visual brainstorming tool used to explore the potential direct and indirect consequences of a particular change or event. It helps in mapping out the first, second, third, and fourth-order impacts of that change.
2. **Who invented the Futures Wheel?**
— The Futures Wheel was invented by Jerome C. Glenn in 1971 as a method for systematic futures-thinking and analysis when he was a student.
3. **How do I start a Futures Wheel?**
— Begin by placing the central change or event at the center of the wheel. This will be the focal point from which all subsequent effects will radiate.
4. **What are first-order impacts?**
— First-order impacts are the immediate, direct consequences of the central event or change. They are typically the most obvious and easiest to identify.
5. **How do I identify second-order impacts?**
— Second-order impacts stem from the first-order impacts. They are one step removed from the central change and may require more thought to identify. Ask how each first-order impact could lead to further changes or consequences.
6. **What are third-order impacts and beyond?**
— Third-order impacts result from the second-order impacts, and so on, moving further away from the initial change. Each level explores deeper, less obvious consequences.
7. **How do I use the STEEPLED framework with a Futures Wheel?**
— Use the STEEPLED framework (Social, Technological, Economic, Environmental, Political, Legal, Ethical, and Demographic) to categorize the impacts. This helps ensure a comprehensive analysis by covering multiple aspects of change.
8. **Can I use a Futures Wheel for any type of change?**
— Yes, the Futures Wheel can be used to explore the implications of any change, whether it’s technological, social, economic, environmental, or otherwise.
9. **How do I avoid a cluttered Futures Wheel?**
— Keep your wheel clear by using concise labelling, connecting related impacts with arrows, and maintaining a logical structure. Regularly step back to review the overall clarity and make adjustments as needed.
10. **How can the Futures Wheel aid in decision-making?**
— By visualizing the potential impacts of a change, the Futures Wheel can help decision-makers understand possible future scenarios, prepare for indirect consequences, and make more informed choices.
These questions cover the basic concepts, applications, and benefits of the Futures Wheel, offering a comprehensive overview for anyone looking to implement this tool in their future thinking and planning processes.
Here is a good example of a Futures Wheel related to the proliferation of the success of the AirBnB Platform. In a surprise shift during the pandemic when people thought the company would fail, in its repositioning to support remote work and escape from onerous restrictions, the company expanded instead of coacting. As a future exercise, it may be interesting to revisit the Futures Wheel of a subject over time to assess the second and third-order effects to see how they have changed. I can see an animation of the graph over time would be an interesting visualization that Tufte would approve.
“Futures studies offer a wide variety of different methods and tools. This paper presents one potential method, the futures wheel method, that could be used when aiming for more holistically acknowledged and justified decisions and actions concerning real estate. The futures wheel method is a visual brainstorming tool that can be used to identify different future impacts of the phenomenon under investigation by placing possible impacts in a wheel formation. With the method, different impacts and their causal relationships can be identified, analyzed and organized (Glenn, 2009; Rubin, 2002). It not only shows the first-tier impacts but can also reveal the possible secondary and tertiary influences that are often left unrecognized. The futures wheel method is simple and user-friendly and does not require special resources (Benckendorff, 2007; Boujaoude, 2000; Glenn, 2009; Toivonen, 2011; Toivonen and Viitanen, 2016) and could therefore be easily incorporated into real estate curricula and education programs at different levels.”
https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JERER-01-2020-0003/full/html
